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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd